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November 29, 2009

Evaluating an embarrassment of WR riches (NCAA)

Filed under: Announcements, Sports, NCAA Football — Red @ 1:52 pm

With the regular season nearly over, we now have a full slate of games under our belts, and a full cupboard of NFL prospects to drool over. The most loaded position this season seems to be wide receiver.

Some of them will be superstars, and some of them will be busts. But almost all of them remind us of somebody else, and if any of these players hit their ceiling, it might look a little bit like this.

Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas: Plaxico Burress. The length, the reach, the ropey physique; Briscoe’s got it all. Neither player is usually the fastest receiver on the field, but both have uncanny abilities to go up and grab balls out of the air away from undersized defensive backs. Like Frankenstein mash-ups between down-field and slot wideouts, they can reach any ball, while also making the tough, short-yardage catches over the middle of the field.

Danario Alexander, Missouri: Randy Moss. Admittedly, this is an impossibly lofty comparison–that is until you see him play. Alexander has the size, strength, hands and breakaway speed to warrant the Moss talk. In one season, he has gone from an obscure back-up to Jeremy Maclin to not just the best receiver in a conference loaded with elite receivers, but perhaps the best receiver in a country loaded with elite receivers.

He’s done it all in 2009. Grabbed seemingly uncatchable balls out of mid-air over the center of the field, ran away from all the defenders after making them, score at will. He’s also got the size (6-5), that you, as they say, cannot teach. While his profile is much lower than any of the other players mentioned here, his ceiling is likely the highest.

Golden Tate, Notre Dame: Wes Welker. In some strange way, this may seem like it is selling Tate short. Tate, after all, has manhandled his competition this season. That’s not something the methodical Welker is known for. Of course, Welker has also been one of the NFL’s most unstoppable wideouts the past three seasons. Still, at the end of the day, he is a “possession” receiver. Someone who moves the chains, not someone who grabs touchdowns out of the sky like Randy Moss. Not always the sexiest job.

But while Tate has played the Moss role much more than the Welker role in college, that isn’t his future in the NFL. Why? Because of one universally discriminating statistic: his height. He’s only 5-11. Welker is 5-9.

But again, back to why potentially being the next Wes Welker, and not the next Randy Moss, is still an exceedingly good thing, and nearly as important. For starters, Welker has 302 catches in his past 40 games. 302. As you may have realized, that’s an astounding number. Second, arguably no player has been more important to the Patriots these past three seasons than Welker. When he was out of the lineup earlier this season, Tom “Terrific” Brady scuttled, and the Pats did not dominate.

Third, Tate is like Welker in a lot of ways, but in a few important ways he’s not. Namely, he’s got more speed and athleticism than even the shifty Welker could ever dream of. Couple that with his Welker-esque steel trap hands, and we have a very productive future NFL player on our hands.

Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State: DeSean Jackson. This comparison is based on only one thing. It’s not size–Bryant is far bigger than Jackson. It’s not speed–Jackson, relatively speaking for WRs, is much faster than Bryant. No, it simply comes down to big plays.

While Jackson is now known for his amazing big-play potential for the Philadelphia Eagles, Bryant was on his way toward being known for such a thing at Okie State before his suspension this season. For his college career, Bryant averaged over 17 yards per catch. Jackson’s NFL and Cal averages are startlingly similar. Bryant won’t be a possession receiver like Tate, and he might not dominate games like Briscoe and Alexander, but he can change them with one play, and that’s something in strong demand at every level of the game.

–Patrick Daugherty, Red Editorial Staff

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