How the Phils can win, and why the Yanks might lose
So far, the 105th World Series has been a microcosm of both the Phillies’ and Yankees’ seasons.
The Phils have hit a ton of solo home runs, Ryan Howard hasn’t hit lefties, Cole Hamels has been awful and Brad Lidge has blown a save in stupefying fashion.
Meanwhile, A.J. Burnett has been erratic, the Yankees have hit seemingly 200 home runs over short porches in right field, Derek Jeter has hit, hit, hit and Mark Teixeira has come up small, small, small in big (all) situations (.105 overall series average after hitting just .264 with runners in scoring position this season).
CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee have both been superb, Joe Girardi has made puzzling decisions and Charlie Manuel has been puzzlingly loyal.
2009 condensed down into five games.
So who wins the series will largely depend on who can buck their bad trends in the next (potential) two games.
Guessing which team might do so seems like little more than a shot in the dark at this point, with the whole series having curiously little momentum. Coming into tonight’s game, neither team seems to have any. The Phils squandered theirs by making their potential blowout game five victory look like a minor miracle, and the Yankees didn’t steal any by virtue of worries over their game six starter, a short rested Andy Pettitte who struggled mightily on full rest in game three.
So what’s it going to be?
It seems impossible to think that both Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira will continue to hit as poorly as they both have this series (combined .132 average, 19 strikeouts in 38 at-bats). Any contribution from either of these MVP candidates would go a long way toward ensuring a title.
By the same token, it almost has to be assumed that Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez are both out of magic. They have absolutely stung the ball, and been essential in all five series victories, but it’s nearly impossible to hit that well in every game of a seven-game series.
So it can be said with a degree of certainty that games six and seven will probably feature new superstar heroes.
There are many other factors to consider, though. For one, the Yankees won’t be employing the same pop-gun offense tonight that they deployed in game five. Jose Molina is gone, while Hideki Matsui is back.
Melky Cabrera’s absence will even things out a little, however. The Yanks no longer have the killer 1-9 they had in their ballpark all season. So the Phils no longer have to feel uneasy about starting Ben Francisco, since Brett Gardner will be out there, too.
Wild cards for tonight could be who’s available in relief. Joe Girardi has already said that A.J. Burnett could pitch if called upon. What about Cliff Lee? Game seven seems more realistic for his first relief appearance of these playoffs, but if the Phillies enter the bottom of the ninth with a one-run lead tonight, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that he throws one inning on one day’s rest.
Might we see Cole Hamels, as well? After his continued ineffectiveness as a starter, he almost certainly will not be getting the ball in a potential game seven. But with that task likely falling to J.A. Happ, then, Hamels could be Philly’s second lefty out of the pen after Scott Eyre. While he has struggled in these playoffs, he has allowed just four runs before the fourth inning in his four starts. This would seem to signify he’s getting killed the second time through the lineup, not a worry if he’s pitching in relief.
Regardless of what happens, you can’t say either team didn’t get what was coming. That is, unless of course one club finally stops making the same mistakes it made all season and punishes the other for not doing so.
It should happen in these next two games, and the 105th team to win the World Series will be crowned for doing so.
–Patrick Daugherty, Red Editorial Staff






